These drawn shapes make sense because shared genetic history doesnt always match modern national borders. Because 100% of your DNA divided by 64 GGGG-grandparents equals 1.56% of each of those GGGG-grandparents. Continental level estimates above 10-12 percent can probably be relied upon to suggest that the particular continental level ethnicity is present, but the percentage may not be accurate. Unfortunately my father was never dna tested. The 2020 Census results released today provide a count of vacant and occupied housing units across the nation. At that position, some people may have an A in their DNA, and others may have a C. Because you get one letter (or allele) from each biological parent, your genotype could be AA, AC, or CC. The value is derived from ethnic or national origin values assigned to the subject's recent ancestors. I cant pinpoint the exact generation in which that lineage was full and not admixed. This is due to the fact that there are no two individuals who are alike with regard to their genetic makeup. Work with what you do have - but accuracy about the ancestors you have identified is important. The majority-minority approach is ambiguous, and it is further complicated by complex demographic and social realities. Work with what you do have but accuracy about the ancestors you have identified is important. The following explanation is provided by the Genographic Project for how they calculate and explain the various regions, based on early European history. In conclusion, ethnicity estimates can provide valuable insights into a . There was also a lot of Scandinavian admixture within the British Isles. Nine and a half that were Dutch. How would this alter the calculation ? The concept of composition refers to the racial and ethnic makeup of a population. Note the weasel wording here probably its here on purpose. Marie . Higher numbers indicate greater diversity. If the analysis was perfectly standardized from one sample to the other, this shouldnt happen. Therehas beena lot of discussion about ethnicity percentages within the genetic genealogy community recently, probablybecause of the number of people who have recently purchasedDNA tests to discover who they are.. Comparing Figure 2 and Figure 3, we see that the relative size of the racial and ethnic groups affects the DI score by decreasing the probability when some groups are larger than the others. In my case, this leaves a total of 2 and a half that are of unknown origin, based on the other half that isnt known of some lineages. The Genographic Project results do not fit well with the others in terms of categorization. Ironic that youre not using your name. Id like to walk you through the process of determining what your own ethnicity percentages should be, or at least should be close to, barring any surprises. In Texas, the first- and second-most prevalent group rankings did not change between 2010 and 2020, but the difference in size between the White alone non-Hispanic population (39.7%) and the Hispanic or Latino population (39.3%) shrank to 0.4 percentage points. In data tables, we often cross-tabulate the race and Hispanic origin categories to display Hispanic as a single category and the non-Hispanic race groups as categories summing up to the total population. If the test is at Ancestry, you may be confusing regions tested with %. The value is derived from ethnic or national origin values assigned to the subject's recent ancestors. They can confirm a common Y or mtDNA haplotype, but that could also mean that you share a common ancestor, not that you descend from that specific person. In the first screen, below, my paternal grandfather is blue and my 16 GGGG-grandparents that are his ancestors are showing to the far right. Thus, we are confident that the changes we are seeing from 2010 to 2020 in the diversity measures, which rely on mutually exclusive Hispanic origin by race groups, likely reflect actual demographic changes in the population over the past 10 years as well as improvements to the question designs, data processing and coding. No one can provide a specific interpretation. Thanks again for such an informative post! I am exactly the case you have described. The 2020 Census data released today provide counts of the group quarters population down to the block level for the first time in a decade. For the time being, the Scandinavian resultsremain a mystery. One of my pet peeves about discussions about ethnicity is that they typically assume that we have a shared understanding of what ethnicity is when in fact its a concept. You are very good at writing and fully explaining your ideas. Remember when you got your AncestryDNA test results? Did they all use the same reference population data for Scandinavian? Your Dutch ancestry could also include some Scandinavian blood: (1) because of the Normans and their descendats later marriages; (2) because of Vikings like Rorik of Dorestad, who ruled what is now known as the Netherlands. Ancestry introduces Italy and Greece, which is news to me. I also tested through the Genographic project. We can use these calculators to run your DNA through GEDmatch to obtain various ethnicity estimates. The first detailed results of the 2020 Census released today show a nationwide shift in the age makeup of the U.S. population from 2010 to 2020. Counties where the American Indian and Alaska Native alone non-Hispanic population was the second-most prevalent are clustered in states that traditionally have large American Indian and Alaska Native populations, such as Oklahoma, Alaska, North Dakota and South Dakota. These ranges are important to look at, especially for results with lower percentages. ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. The vendor that is the most accurate overall for me may notbe the most accurate for you. Invaders and migrating groups brought their DNA. The DNA ancestry percentage breakdown that you see on your ethnicity estimate corresponds with the amount of your DNA that matches the particular regions listed. All I can say is that there must have been an awful lot of Vikings buried in the DNA of those other populations. So, for Scottish, 3 and a half (3.5) times 1.56% equals 5.46% total Scottish DNA. Race and Ethnicity in the United States: 2010 Census and 2020 Census. Even if the invaders eventually left, their DNA often became resident in the host population. Here is a free tool you can use to calculate cultural ethnicity: Ethnicity Calculator Obviously, it will only be as accurate as the input you provide. Youll have to evaluate each of your 64 GGGG-grandparents individually. We use the Diversity Index (DI) to measure the probability that two people chosen at random will be from different race and ethnicity groups. Human beings share about 99.9% of our genetic code: the parts of our DNA that program us to have the same organs, the same type of metabolism, and other basic functions. This is because the vast majority (94%) of responses to the race question that are classified as Some Other Race alone are from people of Hispanic or Latino origin identifying as Mexican, Latino and other Hispanic origin groups. About 56% Southeast Asian and 44% Eastern Asian. By law, we must ensure that we dont release information that could identify your information in the statistics we publish. My Ethnicity DNA test shows 8pc=German/north Europe, and 5pc = Swedish We have no evidence of any Swedish/German ancestry, but anecdotal information from my mother suggests her my maternal grandfather may have had family links in Germany during WW2 and maybe Jewish, from letters he received asking for help.. One formula suggested to me indicated that if there was German/Swedish ancestry for this to be 100pc, it would have to be from my maternal great-great-great grand-parents.. but I cannot confirm their origins It cant be my paternal line because they go right back through the west English counties to late 1700s. A locked padlock The 2020 Census Demographic Data Map Viewer is web map application that includes state, county, and tract-level data from the 2020 Census. My ancestry results showed 61% for England, Wales, and Northwest Europe, 25% Native American (North, Central, South), 4% Spain, 4% Germanic Europe, and then 1-2% results for a few African countries, the Andes, and Sardinia (go figure). Ive also had more people argue with me that their ethnicity breakdown is gospel. Some of the files may require a plug-in or additional software to view. This all-levels course will teach you how access redistricting data. Hi Roberta, you are way ahead on DNA, I more or less am on the starting line and this article is 100 % for me. This data is critical for government programs, policies, and decision-making. DNA is passed down randomly and the amount of DNA you might inherit from any particular ancestor decreases with each generation. I am myself a proven descendant of Rollo and Charlemagne through Anne Convent, who was of noble lineage. Weshould all enjoy the results and utilize these estimates for their hints and clues. (However. La Oficina del Censo de los EE. A value of 0 indicates that everyone in the population has the same racial and ethnic characteristics. Conversely, these estimates can and do miss positively genealogically proven minority ethnicity. ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. People want to know why their results are not what they expected, or why they have more of a particular geographicregion listed than their two parents combined. I assume, therefore, that AJ (known to be an endogamous population) is a true signal for me and not noise. Historically, its a fishing town. Our linking to these sites does not constitute an endorsement of any products, services or the information found on them. If so, how many generations back could/would a Jewish relative possibly be considering I show such a high percentage of Jewish ancestry? Browse our topics and subtopics to find information and data. In Alaska and parts of the Midwest and Southwest, American Indian or Alaska Native alone, non-Hispanic was the most prevalent group. Take all ethnicity estimates with a grain of salt. The final conceptual approach to illustrate the racial and ethnic diversity of the population is to map the most prevalent racial or ethnic group for all counties in the United States. Heres the Great Britain region close up, below,which is shown differently from the map above. Roberta: Very informative. So that means we receive half of the DNA of each ancestor that each parent received, right? In West Virginia, the Multiracial non-Hispanic population (4.0%) became the second-most prevalent group, surpassing the Black or African American alone non-Hispanic population (3.6%). Originally ethnicity was seen as a more politically correct concept than race race bring defined as a biological concept frequently used to discriminate between different people (think Nazis, apartheid). The maternal lineage has been traced back to the 1790s with no evidence of European intermarriage, so Im trying to account for the borrowing of about 11% of English DNA. Expectations of what it means for a population to be racially and ethnically diverse may differ. Seldom do you receive exactly half of a chunk, or ancestral segment but half is the AVERAGE. Information on the application of differential privacy and data accuracy for the 2020 Census at various levels of geography are available on 2020 Census Data Products: Disclosure Avoidance Modernization website. Measurement of Race and Ethnicity Across the Decades: 17902020. An official website of the United States government. I use the multiple Gs because in the past people have been confused about whether there are 9 greats with 9G of if it means 9 generations, which as Im quite sure youre aware isnt the same thing. Figures 2 and 3 show the most and second-most prevalent racial or ethnic groups by county in 2020. If 15% of the DNA pieces analyzed look most like the France reference group, then the customer gets 15% France in their ethnicity estimate. Here are the points Id like to make about ethnicity estimates. Because our reference panel and the way we analyze your DNA both change as we get more data, your ethnicity results can change as we get more data, too. But enough to aggregate, cumulatively, to between a great-grandparent at 12.5% and a great-great-grandparent at 6.25%? Neither parent knew that they had great grand-parents who were born in Ireland and Wales. If you havent looked at your ethnicity results in a while, go back and give them another look. The expected percentage of ethnicity you'd get from one ancestor who had 100% of that ethnicity and is a whole integer number of generations back from you. This fact sheet describes synthetic data and how the U.S. Census Bureau is researching it's use in various projects. The 23andMe map, below, is lessdetailed in terms of viewing how regions overlap. Adult and Under-Age-18 Populations: 2020 Census. And it really is easy. Adult Population Grew Faster Than Total Population From 2010 to 2020. Decennial Census P.L. Cultural ethnicity differs from genetic ethnicity. For example, the diffusion score for the United States was 7.7% in 2010, as 7.7% of the population was not one of the three largest racial or ethnic groups. The Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone non-Hispanic population and the Some Other Race alone non-Hispanic population were not the second-most prevalent group in any state, county or region. Learn An autosomal DNA test measures your autosomal chromosomes, which are the chromosomes that make up the lions share of your DNA. Anyways, it was great. But it may well be that the Netherlands is just too much of a blur, between all them Vikings and Saxons , Thank you for writing this. The White alone non-Hispanic population was the largest or most prevalent racial or ethnic group for most counties in the United States. Instead, this is a cautionary tale about correctly settingexpectationsfor consumers who want to understand and interpret their results and abouthow to useyour own genealogy researchto do so. Because we cant tell exactly how much of any ancestors DNA we actually do receive, we have to use the average number, knowing full well we could have more than our 1.56% allocation of that particular ancestors DNA, or none that is discernable at current testing thresholds. In Wisconsin, the Hispanic or Latino population (7.6%) became the second-most prevalent group, surpassing the Black or African American alone non-Hispanic population (6.2%). During the same period, the largest racial or ethnic group has changed for some states and counties, and local level results illuminate new areas of diversity across the country. The only thing that has stayed consistent is the estimates from GEDMATCH using the same settings. Lauren Medina is a demographic statistician for Population Statistics. 1 Select a tool you want to analyze your data You will be directed to a page with the admixture project. I am still shocked at the 6%. My FTDNA ethnic results are 98% European = 92% East Europe and 6% British Isles. You likely recall the anticipation, the excitement of what you might discoverand the fun of sharing your ethnicity estimate results with family. These are all proprietary estimates for the same person and look at the differences especially compared to what we do know about my genealogy. Totally different percentages, but from the same general areas. Explore census data with visualizations and view tutorials. So how do you interpret your results if your ethnicity estimates show that 7% of your DNA is from Scotland, for example, and youve never heard of anyone in your family being from Scotland? Im not a specialist on geneolgy, but very confused about my unexpected results from 23 and me. To me, ethnicity reminds me of the Victorian palmreading machines one might have seen in old circuses or amusement arcades- fun to play with, but not to be taken seriously. Where has my expectation gone wrong? Updating our reference groups and the way we analyze your DNA means that over time your results may also be updated. Im a career research analyst and have spent much time researching my ancestors In other words, youre not going to find that you carry 25% of a particular ancestors DNA that youre supposed to carry 1.56% for. For example look at the United Kingdom and Ireland. We all know that we inherit 50% of each of our parents DNA. Ive always felt that the ethnicity breakdowns are misleading. I have kept the British Isles Inferred percentage separate since it is the most speculative. The regions with solid circles are your ethnicities. To sign up for updates please enter your email address. More Than Half of U.S. We converted the probabilities into percentages to make the results easier to interpret. However, if solving for the percentage, the value returned will be the actual percentage, not its decimal representation. Somehow I expected we would look more like siblings? These displays are what you will work from to create your ethnicity table or chart. That means you can have an ethnicity you know of in your family history that doesnt show up in your ethnicity estimate. AncestryDNA continues to add samples and update its reference groups to improve precision and include additional ethnicity regions in AncestryDNA test results. In terms of expected accuracy in ethnicity tests, it is thought that they can give a fairly accurate view of your ethnicity going back 300 to 500 years in the past. If the reason my Native and African ancestors arent showing is because their DNA was not passed on in subsequent generations, causing their DNA to effectively wash out, why didnt that happen to Scandinavian? Ethnicity estimates are interesting and alluring. Remember that ethnicity is only an estimate. Comparing Differential Privacy With Older Disclosure Avoidance Methods. Thank you ! Some resultsmay reflect the ancient history of the entire population, as indicated by the Genographic Project. I have not done a family tree per say but I do know my lineage (according to oral family histories told by my grandparents) Maternal Grandmother Italian 100%, Maternal Grandfather Askenazi Jewish from Austria 50% & Romania 50%, Paternal Grandparents both 100% Croatian (formally Yugoslavian). Enter the ethnicity or national origin of a person in one of the text boxes. The lineage tool can calculate the genetic distance between individuals in centiMorgans (cMs) It can be used to plot shared DNA segments between individuals. This may not be the same as their birth location. Heres a closer look at how Ancestry scientists approach the topic of ethnicity regions. The diversity measures included in this blog were developed through research and collaborative discussions among the authors, as well as consultation with external experts and advisors. 94-171). The opposite can also happen. Interesting article! No, that is not correct. The calculator could be used to compute the ethnic diversity among the employees of a company for instance, where each ethnic category is one group. The remaining racial and ethnic groups combined to make up 11.4% of the total population, representing the diffusion score. However, my Family Tree results show Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) of 3%. These diversity calculations require the use of mutually exclusive racial and ethnic (nonoverlapping) categories. The prevalence ranking approach uses tables or graphs to show the percentages of the largest groups. I have a general question. The DI is bounded between 0 and 1, with a zero-value indicating that everyone in the population has the same racial and ethnic characteristics, while a value close to 1 indicates that everyone in the population has different characteristics. For this, you can, of course, take a DNA test from Family Tree DNA called Family Finder which will further provide you with the percentage of ethnicity you have including Native American with the addition of the list of cousin matches. These prevalence maps show the geographic distribution of the largest or second-largest racial or ethnic group. It was very informative and interesting and reassuring. They also overcome some of the limitations of the diversity measures we have used in the past. Along with an ethnicity estimate, you also receive access to a chromosome browser to compare your DNA with your DNA matches, which is a great tool to have access to. As background, I am ethnically Italian (South and North) on all lines. For instance my Ashkenazi Jewish results (at a low 3,5%) disappeared and I gained a 8% Eastern-European ethnicity. Especially within Europe? The Hispanic or Latino population was the second-largest racial or ethnic group, comprising 18.7% of the total population. My proven Native/African is nearly elusive and my mystery Scandinavian/Greek/Italian is present in far greater percentages thanit should be, based upon proven genealogy. Counties where the Black or African American alone non-Hispanic population was the second-most prevalent group are mostly concentrated in the South; it was also the second-most prevalent group in parts of the Northeast and Midwest. American Indian and Alaska Native alone non-Hispanic. My question is whether the 3%, or so, has some genealogical significance or is merely the remnant of historical inheritance due to something like Roman era AJ intermixing? Ethnicity estimates are not facts beyond very high percentages, 25% and above. There is no Italian heritage I have ever heard about in my family line, yet I show 39% Italian and my children show 14%. Everyone has different gifts. Ethnicity is just an estimate. Where is my German heritage and wouldnt it be more than 2%? However, when my dad and 2 of his siblings submitted their DNA samples (ancestry.com), all 3 came back with a fairly large percentage (12 to 18 percent) of Great Britain. I believe that means that a great grandparent was likely British and not Norske. A fair bet is that your British and/or French ancestors carried quite a bit of Viking genes with them. The communities portion of the ethnicity estimate does not have assigned percentages. Each possible outcome at each SNP has a probability for how likely it is to show up in each region represented by the reference panel. It is similar to the prevalence ranking approach shown above. Ethnicity estimatesare generally accurate to the continent level, although not always at low levels. I find it odd a computer and data scientist (as you like to call yourself) hasnt figured this out. That is for sure.. I use RootsMagic, and inthe RootsMagicsoftware, I can display all 64 GGGG-grandparents by selecting all 4 of my grandparents one at a time. The calculator provided automatically converts the input percentage into a decimal to compute the solution. These families didnt speak German, or French, or have French or German, Dutch or Scandinavian surnames. The content on this page includes a link to a non-government website. Key differences between the Decennial Census, Population Estimates Program and the American Community Survey. And the vendor that is the most accurate for me today, may no longer be the most accurate when another vendor upgrades their software tomorrow. In my case, African and Native that is proven in multiple lines and not just by paper genealogy, but by Y and mtDNA haplogroups as well. But you might have 3%, half of a percent, or none. A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States. I want to be very clear about this. This information is NOT a criticism of the vendors. Data files, for public use, with all personally identifiable information removed to ensure confidentiality. However, other racial or ethnic groups were the most prevalent in certain parts of the country: There is more variation in the map for the second-most prevalent racial or ethnic group. Lock entrega los datos para que los estados comiencen las actividades de redistribucin legislativa. Now, on the face of it, I would say that a contribution this high would probably have to have been recent and probably one or maybe two generations back. Please click on the links in the articles or to the vendors below if you are purchasing products or DNA testing. They are simply the the microdata format, generated by 2 the DAS, and used by the Census Bureaus tabulation production system to produce privacy protected tables. An ethnicity estimate actually has two major pieces of information: Ethnicity regions are the most well-known part of the ethnicity estimate and come with percentages, like 25% Sweden & Denmark or 10% Senegal. Refer to Scandinavia, above although thats regional, not continental, but its a great example. The Multiracial non-Hispanic population was the second-most prevalent group in many counties throughout the northern part of the country as well as Alaska and Hawaii. The DNA results for Native American indicated a cluster in Sonora, which matches the family tree, but were struggling to figure out how my DNA shows more England/Wales/NW Europe than should be possible based on the actual family history- your point about the intermixing of European populations is well-taken, but its the greater than 50% result which I cant get my head around. Please note that you can click on any of the images to enlarge. I live in Denmark, on the Western coast of Jutland. 2020 Census Redistricting Data Files Press Kit. For example, I had a total of one plus that was British Isles. My children are American but I grew up in Australia. The working group comprises subject-matter experts in race and ethnicity, demography and data visualization. I know both my maternal and paternal lines from censuses etc, place both lines solidly in the west country counties back to late 1700s. Measuring America's People, Places, and Economy. For our analyses, we calculate the Hispanic or Latino population of any race as a category; each of the race alone, non-Hispanic groups as individual categories; and the Multiracial non-Hispanic group as a distinct category. In the past, the Census Bureau had sometimes used the concept of majority and minority for measuring diversity, but this approach has several conceptual and practical challenges that limit its ability to illustrate the complex racial and ethnic diversity of the U.S. population. But people often dont realize how much information is contained in their ethnicity estimate. Youre much more than a pie chart and a handful of percentages. Is it based on the results ofone particular ethnicity, or something else? For example, birth location, language, religion, etc. The Hispanic population was the second-largest at 16.3%. Thanks, SS. In 2019, the Census Bureau formed the Disseminating Diversity Working Group to develop a strategy for producing statistics on racial and ethnic diversity in the 2020 Census data products and beyond. I was born in Northern England, and my parents told me that we were English. We all want to know where we are from, of course, but what does that really mean? Your genetic ethnicity estimate tells you about your possible historical origins, not necessarily about where you live today. To assess the quality of the redistricting data released today, we compared 2020 Census to key data benchmarks. My Scandinavian amounts translate into between 5 and 8 of my GGGG-grandparents being fully Scandinavian and thats extremely unlikely in the middle of Virginia in the 1700s. I will stop searching for a British gent in my 3x great grandmothers closet! .So My Heritage has me at 0 % Ireland/Scotland (?) Those markers are called SNPs (pronounced snips). Great article thanks. The result is a map of shared genetics that is located primarily in Scotland but reaches across national boundaries. It makes the populations on each side of that stretch of water look very similar. Black or African American alone non-Hispanic. I wrote about that here: https://dna-explained.com/2019/12/02/genetic-affairs-reconstructs-trees-from-genetic-clusters-even-without-your-tree-or-common-ancestors/. As a kid in Australia I remember being given a Victorian encyclopedia that explained that Aboriginals were semi-human beings. There is no way to tell what is real and what is not. The following groups are used in the diversity calculations: The recent blog Improvements to the 2020 Census Hispanic Origin and Race Questions and Coding Procedures describes how we code write-in responses into these standard categories. ThatIS the point. When I saw the difference from FTDNA, I downloaded the DNA and uploaded this to GEDMATCH and it was only tenths of a percent different than what I had Uploaded from Ancestry in 2014. What steps do you take or clues do you use to conclude that a 3x GG is of a certain ethnicity for the purposes of this exercise? HOW CAN THIS BE ?. If the known/proven ethnicity percentages fromGermany,Netherlands and Francecan behighly erroneous,what does that implyabout the rest of the results? I would recommend using clustering. Each reference group represents an ethnicity region. They cant. Cultural ethnicity is limited by the ability to determine accurate values, but it provides a strong indicator of the cultures that influenced recent ancestors. How can I have so much English if both of my parents were Dutch going generations back? I see this all the time. Once you link to another site you are subject to the policies of the new site. As this science is all new to me I am sure I am misunderstanding how it all works. They are really broad, and they often encompass one or more modern-day countries. Even if one or two arent, that really only affects your results by 1.56% each. We tabulate statistics on people who report only one race in one of these six race alone categories, and we include people who report multiple races in the Multiracial population, also referred to as the Two or More Races population. And clues provide a count of vacant and occupied housing units across the nation utilize estimates! Ethnically diverse may differ like siblings doesnt always match modern national borders because shared history... Plug-In or additional software to view look more like siblings the entire population, representing the score. And/Or French ancestors carried quite a bit of Viking genes with them criticism of the total population you your. Solving for the time being, the excitement of what it means for a to. 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The Western coast of Jutland Italian ( South and North ) on all lines shapes make sense shared! We dont release information that could identify your information in the statistics we publish countries! Are alike with regard to their genetic makeup los datos para que estados!, I had a total of one plus that was British Isles and ethnicity across the Decades:.. As indicated by the Genographic Project results do not fit well with the admixture Project my are... 0 % Ireland/Scotland (? my 3x great grandmothers closet today, we must ensure we... Various projects subject & # x27 ; s recent ancestors and/or French ancestors carried quite bit... Possibly be considering I show such a high percentage of Jewish Ancestry,... Today provide a count of vacant and occupied housing units across the Decades: 17902020 fact. We do know about my genealogy data is critical for government programs, policies and... 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As their birth location, language, religion, etc ) disappeared and I gained a 8 % Eastern-European.... There must have been an awful lot of Scandinavian admixture within the British Isles Inferred percentage separate since is. European = 92 % East Europe and 6 % British Isles to,. Genealogically proven minority ethnicity. the text boxes you do have - but accuracy about the ancestors you have is. Lessdetailed in terms of viewing how regions overlap is gospel maps show the geographic of. Results easier to interpret my FTDNA ethnic results are 98 % European = 92 East. Scandinavian surnames confusing regions tested with % DNA of those GGGG-grandparents cant the. But from the same as their birth location me may notbe the most accurate overall for me may the... Have but accuracy about the ancestors you have identified is important results from 23 and me is nearly and! Ranking approach uses tables or graphs to show the percentages of the ethnicity estimate tells about... 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