This is reflected in the Ground Force's preferred ad-hoc fighting formation, the Battalion Tactical Group, which combines infantry and tank companies with an unusually large quantity of artillery. This weakness might not matter so much if an army makes rapid progress at the start of its offensive. Full speed into the obvious minefield. $25 a month), and serve only for one year, half of which is spent simply learning the necessary skills and undergoing particularly brutal hazing. But they are advancing on winding roads and their flanks and supply routes are overly exposed to Ukrainian attacks.. They're not a militia of the GRU, which is the military intelligence. It's a rare acknowledgment of the flaws in the Russian military's capabilities revealed by the war. Sign up for notifications from Insider! Russias military, at 900,000 active duty troops and two million reservists, is eight times the size of Ukraines. Russia's mobilization of 300,000 reservists, destruction of much of its equipment in battle. And though Russia still lacks equivalent to many US systems, in turn, it has land-based artillery, air-defense, and tactical ballistic-missile capabilities the US doesn't yet field because of Washington's greater reliance on air power, and it's moving forward with integrating a variety of armed drones into service in the 2020s. [24], Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Kreminna on February 28. You can follow his articles on Twitter. In other words, Russias military modernization has been uneven at best. The vice president last week, in her visit to Poland, in her public statement, she was asked about this. Russian forces attacked residential neighborhoods of Mykolaiv, Ukraine, with artillery on Monday. The military mobilized an unspecified amount of BTR-50 armored personnel carriers, which have been spotted in Russian-occupied territory. Russias disastrous First Chechen War revealed the shocking decay of Russias military from its Soviet-era peak. Its a little bit early to draw any definitive lessons learned, he added. And remember, the Pentagon is also attempting to devote most of its military efforts to counter China in the Pacific. Gen. Omar Bradley once said about different types of military officers, Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics.* In that sense, Russians are amateurs. The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military, said Andrei V. Kozyrev, the foreign minister for Russia under Boris Yeltsin, in a post on Twitter. [25]A Russian milblogger claimed that while Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast still have the initiative, Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast are unsuccessful, supporting ISWs previous assessment that the Russian forces offensive in Luhansk Oblast lacks sufficient reserves to increase the scale or intensity of the offensive. [45]Humenyuk also claimed that Russian forces are shelling Russian-occupied settlements on the east (left) bank in Kherson Oblast to give Russian occupation officials and forces the pretext to conduct evacuations from Oleshky, Skadovsk, and Nova Kakhovka and withdraw closer towards Crimea. Who pays them? [34]Geolocated footage posted on February 27 shows Ukrainian troops striking Wagner positions near Ivanivske (5km west of Bakhmut), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops continue assaults towards Ivanviske itself. [23]Another milblogger claimed that assault detachment elements of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) pushed Ukrainian forces out of unspecified high-ground positions on the Svatove-Kreminna line. MARTIN: There are reports now that mercenary groups may be getting involved in support of Russia. We wanted to talk more now about the kind of war Russia is waging on Ukraine. Here are the major military aviation procurements Russia is expected to pursue in the 2020s. He made those remarks while his coordination council met to discuss what Putin called "arising issues" in the defense sector, among other industries, per the Kremlin. Russia has closed down the airspace over the Pulkovo Airport in St Petersburg after an unidentified flying object was spotted, according to reports. I'm thinking about, like, the election interference that we saw here in the United States. News reports, tweets, videos, and emails from the battlefields show Russias armored vehicles abandoned for lack of fuel, its soldiers foraging for food, its transport planes shot out of the sky, its various military elementstanks, infantry, aircraftunable to coordinate their aims. [44]Humenyuk stated that Ukrainian forces immediately locate Russian artillery units on the Kinburn Spit once they fire and that these Russian units do not have enough time to evacuate the area before Ukrainian forces conduct counterbattery fire. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. A Saint Petersburg local news source reported that a graduate student faces criminal charges for breaking a window at the Vyborg Raion, Saint Petersburg military registration and enlistment office, and painting anti-war slogans in the office on February 26. His book, "The New Rules Of War," explores how to win wars in this new era, and he's with us now. [19]Lukashenko previously stated that the Belarusian defense industry can produce weapons since Belarus has access to microelectronics, optics, and other component imports from other states. "My call for a Ukraine national militia of quick-trained volunteers to attack stopped Russian columns opportunistically (the Finnish model) is misrepresented as a call for an endless guerilla war After losing a few soldiers the Russians will withdraw (as in Chechnya). Russia is believed to have lost almost 1,000 tanks in its war with Ukraine, a senior US defense official said Thursday. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia's weapons need to be modernized. The resistance will continue, especially now that practically every nation in NATO is supplying Ukraine with weapons. [68]Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an arson attack on a military commissariat and sentenced a Volgograd resident to four years in prison for setting fire to the back room of a military registration and enlistment office on May 15. He says that most never see T-90s or BTR-90, most of the army is sitting on old BTR-80s and T-72B3s. [37]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [38]https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://t.me/readovkanews/53706, [39]https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=133231762743931. [75]ISW continues to assess that the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children may constitute a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. And the results are the same. Today what I have seen is that even this huge army or military is not so huge, said Lt. Gen. Martin Herem, Estonias chief of defense, during a news conference at an air base in northern Estonia with Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. Michael Kofman, a military analyst at CNA, an Arlington, Virginiabased think tank, who has been following the battle closely, tweeted late Sunday afternoon, Its taken me a while to figure out what [the Russian military is] trying to do, because it looks so ridiculous and incompetent. B.A. On Wednesday, the Pentagon also said that North Korea has been secretly supplying Russia with artillery shells to be used in Ukraine. The tweet claims the tank was abandoned in good condition and fully-loaded. Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. Faced with bad weather in northern Ukraine, the Russian officers grounded some Russian attack planes and helicopters, and forced others to fly at lower altitudes, making them more vulnerable to Ukrainian ground fire, a senior Pentagon official said. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports. The Russian advance is ponderous, retired Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, a former NATO supreme allied commander for Europe, said at a virtual Atlantic Conference event on the crisis last Friday. Yet, in this invasion, Russian tanks are rolling all on their own or providing protection for reconnaissance scouts, but getting no protection for themselves. [41], Supporting EffortSouthern Axis(Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes). That Russia has so quickly abandoned surgical strikes, instead killing civilians trying to flee, could damage Mr. Putins chances of winning a long-term war in Ukraine. In reality, though there were real doctrinal and technical innovations in the Soviet military prior to and during World War II, Russian military leaders were constrained by political purges, educational deficits, and linguistic barriers in the Soviet conscript soldiers. His careful response, before reporters in Estonia: Weve seen a large, combined-arms, multi-axis invasion of the second-largest country in Europe, Ukraine, by Russian air, ground, special forces, intelligence forces, he said, before describing some of the bombardment brought by Russia and his concern over its indiscriminate firing on civilians. [67]https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/19653;https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/4666 [68]https://meduzadot io/feature/2023/02/27/shkolnitsa-iz-tulskoy-oblasti-narisovala-antivoennyy-risunok-teper-otets-kotoryy-vospityvaet-ee-odin-figurant-ugolovnogo-dela-o-diskreditatsii-armii, [69]https://t.me/astrapress/21972;https://t.me/sotaproject/54572, [70]https://minre.govdot ua/news/ukazom-prezydenta-vvedeno-v-diyu-personalni-sankciyi-shchodo-rosiyan-prychetnyh-do-deportaciyi;https://www.president.govdot ua/documents/1152023-45957, [71]https://minre.govdot ua/news/ukazom-prezydenta-vvedeno-v-diyu-personalni-sankciyi-shchodo-rosiyan-prychetnyh-do-deportaciyi;https://www.president.govdot ua/documents/1152023-45957, [73]https://minre.govdot ua/news/ukazom-prezydenta-vvedeno-v-diyu-personalni-sankciyi-shchodo-rosiyan-prychetnyh-do-deportaciyi;https://www.president.govdot ua/documents/1152023-45957, [74]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2023/02/28/rosiya-nasylno-vyvezla-z-ukrayiny-ponad-16-tysyach-ditej-ofis-genprokurora/, [75]https://www.dw dot com/en/ukraine-calls-transfer-of-children-to-russia-genocidal-crime/a-64835163, [76]https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/481;https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/480, [77]https://sprotyv.moddot gov.ua/2023/02/28/rosiyany-zmushuyut-ukrayinskyh-ditej-pysaty-lysty-okupantam/. It's time to retire outdated stereotypes about the Russian military: As the possibility of an escalated Russian war in Ukraine looms larger and larger, a noted strategist and historian took to social media to argue Moscow's forces could be handily repelled by little hit-and-run warfare by Ukrainian civilians-at-arms. [57]Russia reportedly loses 150 tanks a month in Ukraine while Russias sole tank production factory, UralVagonZavod, produces 20 tanks a month. [30]The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; north of Bakhmut near Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km northwest), Orikhovo-Vasylivka (10km northwest), Berkhkivka (4km north), Yahidne (1km northwest), Vasyukivka (13km northwest), and Bohdanivka (8km northwest); west of Bakhmut near Chasiv Yar (10km west); and southwest of Bakhmut near Bila Hora (15km southwest). The A-50 AWACS was created by the Beriev Design Bureau on the basis of the IL-76 military transport aircraft in 1978-1985. Depends on which standards the word outdated is based. By Hollywood standards, its certainly mostly outdated, there are even personnel wearing 1 The Russians do not have unlimited quantities of their most modern equipment. There is no debating that. Gone are the days of the 1970s when the US And the reason why Russia likes mercenaries, particularly this one group called the Wagner Group, is because they give the Kremlin great plausible deniability. Claim: According to a February 2023 video message, U.S. President Joe Biden had invoked the Selective Service Act, which will draft 20-year-olds through lottery to the military as a result of a Troops are trained in rote set pieces, with no time devoted to improvising if things dont go as planned. Military operations designed to take place sequentiallyStep 1, then 2, then 3, etc.fell apart, catastrophically. [42]Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko reported that Russian forces have transferred between 20,000 and 25,000 personnel from Mariupol Raion, Donetsk Oblast, to unspecified areas of the front, although Russian forces likely transferred most of these personnel to areas of active offensive operations elsewhere in Donetsk Oblast. [73]The Ukrainian General Prosecutors Office reported on February 28 that Russian officials have forcibly removed 16,000 Ukrainian children from Ukraine to Russia and Belarus and that Ukrainian officials have managed to return 307 of those children to Ukrainian-held territory. Russia launched a new offensive to take Vuhledar, but its armor is taking heavy losses. [33]https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/readovkanews/53701;http [35]https://t.me/ukrbavovna/6824;https://twitter.com/seanders_geo/status/1 [36]https://twitter.com/chris__759/status/1630324113616297984?s=20. [54]Armenian officials have not yet publicly commented on the potential to extradite Kamensky to Russia. For over a decade, Russia has undergone a great modernization of its military. A Ukrainian official reported that Russian forces are vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast and may be preparing to withdraw from positions closer to the Dnipro River on the east (left) bank in Kherson Oblast. Russia has begun military maneuvers with larger units in recent days and has assembled a large force around Kyiv that appears poised for a possible multipronged attack on the capital soon, he added. Russian authorities appear to be escalating their promotion of false flag information operations to distract from their lack of tangible battlefield gains and slow down the provision of Western tanks and other aid in advance of expected Ukrainian counter-offensives. That would be akin to assuming that the specific problems of the US's conscription-based Army during the Vietnam War, like the practice of "fragging" unpopular officers with grenades, are the same as those of the US's volunteer military today. In short, 2023 is a pivotal year in the war, and it is extremely important that Russia does not - hybrid warfare involving sort of other kinds of tactics. And the more Putin resorts to chaotic destructiveness, the more organized the defenses become. Whats their motivation for telling us? While the shortcomings of Russia's one-year conscripts are real, they now constitute a large minority, not the majority of Russia's military. Anyone can read what you share. The Russian military has at times relied on so-called dumb bombs for some of its airstrikes. The idea of an arms treaty between the two nations may be outdated. MARTIN: And by hybrid warfare, what do we mean? Armored forces attempting to take the Ukrainian town of Vuhledar are being decimated by landmines. The Russian army has always been bad at setting up and sustaining supply lines. And though the Finns executed a masterful mobile defense against larger Soviet forces in 1939-1940 and 1944, Helsinki was still eventually forced to sue for peace and cede the Karelian Isthmus both times. They created this fog of war and used it all these sneaky ways. Putins invasion has rallied Ukrainian nationalism, stiffened the Wests spine, and sent his own economy into a tailspin. Russia has closed down the airspace over the Pulkovo Airport in St Petersburg after an unidentified flying object was spotted, according to reports. None of this should be overstated. [59]Business Insiderconcluded that Russian production remains unlikely to meet demand levels, however. ISW will revise this text and its assessment if it observes any unambiguous indicators that Russia or Belarus is preparing to attack northern Ukraine. Whats their motivation for telling us? according to the Kremlin's official site. You've written extensively about these groups. [58]Business InsiderandThe Economistnoted that 18 Russian factories are refurbishing old tanks and that two more repair plants will soon join the efforts. It'll be horrific. The A-50 AWACS was created by the Beriev Design Bureau on the basis of the IL-76 military transport aircraft in 1978-1985. Some troops have crossed the border with MREs (meals ready to eat) These factors still leave Russia at a deficit compared to US spending, but a much smaller one than decontextualized budget figures imply. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces may be preparing for offensive operations in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. Ukraines military, which is dwarfed by the Russian force in most ways, has somehow managed to stymie its opponent. As a result, during World War II and the Winter War, Russian infantry was sometimes dispatched on costly human wave assaults to overrun entrenched defenders. But if our - if these Wagner guys can go up against Delta Force and put up a fight, you know, that tells you what they're capable of. Some troops have crossed the border with MREs (meals ready to eat) that expired in 2002, U.S. and other Western officials said, and others have surrendered and sabotaged their own vehicles to avoid fighting. The town itself has been shattered by the fighting, with buildings bombed out and streets abandoned. This is well known. [70]The decision imposes sanctions on 109 Russian citizens involved in the deportation and forced adoption of Ukrainian children, including many regional representatives of the Russian Childrens Rights Commission and Human Rights Commission. Click here. That information campaign centering on Russias openness to negotiations aimed to prompt Western officials to offer preemptive concessions and coerce Ukraine to negotiate on Russian terms and likely contributed to the delay in the provision of Western tanks and other equipment essential for the continuation of Ukrainian mechanized counteroffensives. Russia still fields far more numerous forces than European militaries with equivalent defense spending, but not on the scale of the Soviet Union. Moscow's inability to gain and hold significant ground in Ukraine, coupled with the destruction of much of its equipment in battle, has forced it to deploy Soviet-era tanks and weapons systems, according to Western intelligence. MARTIN: And do you - there has been as - we've had a number of discussions about war crimes being committed in Ukraine. He is a veteran, a former private military contractor and more recently an author. The rusty BTR-50P, which dates back to 1954, probably wont fare too well in combat. [51]https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/3344;https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/2691 [52]https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/3344;https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/2691 [53]https://meduza dot io/news/2023/02/28/v-erevane-zaderzhali-rossiyanina-podozrevaemogo-po-delu-ob-antivoennyh-nadpisyah-v-moskve; https://www.police dot am/ru/news/view/%D5%BE%D5%A1%D5%B6%D5%A4%D5%A1%D5%AC%D5%A B%D5%A6%D5%B4280223.html;https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32292266.html;https://www.themoscowtimesdot com/2023/02/28/armenia-detains-russian-anti-war-activist-at-airport-a80355;https://ovddot news/express-news/2023/02/28/podozrevaemogo-po-delu-ob-antivoennyh-nadpisyah-v-moskve-zaderzhali-v, [54]https://www.themoscowtimes dot com/2023/02/28/armenia-detains-russian-anti-war-activist-at-airport-a80355, [55]https://www.azatutyundot am/a/32292266.html. The way the Russians have advanced, which is that they have stuck to main roads so that they can move quickly, not risk of getting bogged down in mud. Pretty outdated. They've moved troops around the country in slow, lumbering convoys that have seemed to get stuck at times, and they've had trouble keeping up their supply lines. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information. You can manage your newsletter subscriptions at any time. Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. [10]Putins address to the FSB similarly aligns the FSB and its traditional domestic law enforcement and counterterrorism role with Russian military efforts in Ukraine in order to frame Russian victory in the war as necessary for Russias domestic security. But I wonder if you feel that this is a relevant concept here in this - in modern warfare. Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. On Saturday, a photograph emerged on social media showing a Russian T-62 tank located somewhere in eastern Ukraine. [8]Putin also emphasized that the FSBs primary purpose is to support the Russian Armed Forces and Rosgvardia in their efforts to accomplish the objectives of the special military operation and noted the FSBs role in preventing incursions of Ukrainian sabotage groups onto Russian territory. Hence the stories of captured Russian troops who had no idea why they were in Ukraine. https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/readovkanews/53701;http https://t.me/ukrbavovna/6824;https://twitter.com/seanders_geo/status/1 https://twitter.com/chris__759/status/1630324113616297984?s=20, https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://t.me/readovkanews/53706, https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=133231762743931, https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/sashakots/38685. However, some of their age-old weaknesses havent been fixed at all. [49]Humenyuk reported that Ukrainian forces do not shell residential areas or critical infrastructure in southern Ukraine and strike Russian forces ensuring that local residents will not be affected. And certainly, you know, when conventional war in Ukraine fails, which I think it will, Putin will move to an unconventional war phase where he's going to flatten cities like he did in Grozny, too, and Aleppo in Syria. Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 Luhansk Oblast (, Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and made tactical gains within Bakhmut on February 28. A destroyed Russian tank is seen outside of Izyum district of Kharkiv Oblast, Similarly, tanks arent supposed to roll through hostile territory all alone. 2 Dec 2022 Brussels, Belgium Ten months into Russias war in Ukraine, the war of words between the Kremlin and the West continues. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense reported that Russias Aerospace Forces would likely have only six operational A-50s in service if this attack were successful. In response, nearly one million military-aged Russian men fled the country. In total, russia has only 6 A-50Us and 3 The result: Militaries in Europe that once feared Russia say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past. [4]The recent resurgence of several standard Russian information operations in the form of false flag warnings and tired nuclear threats suggests that Russian officials are increasingly trying to mitigate the informational impacts of a continued lack of Russian battlefield successes as well as to slow down the provision of Western tanks and other equipment in advance of expected Ukrainian counter-offensives. It's certainly true that the US's financial means allow it to deploy global power projection capabilities including nuclear-powered supercarriers and hundreds of stealth combat aircraft that far exceed anything Russia's military can do. One reason for this is that junior officers are not allowed to take initiative. According to U.S. officials, the Russian military has committed 80 percent of its active-duty army, airborne, and marine units and their equipment to Ukraine, and it has already withdrawn additional equipment from long-term storage. [18]The Kremlin may be reintroducing the negotiations information operation to reduce the effectiveness of future Ukrainian counteroffensives by delaying the provision of essential Western aid and to seek to gain concessions before potential further setbacks in Ukraine. MARTIN: So one reason I think that Russian tactics stand out is that, in recent years, we have really associated the Russians with so-called hybrid war - right? The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the Avdiivka area near Kamianka; on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Pervomaiske; Krasnohorivka, and Nevelske; and on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Marinka and Pervomaiske. MCFATE: Look; the laws of armed conflict, the laws of war, they all were created over 100 years ago, mostly, and they only seek to address conventional war, sort of state-on-state, military-on-military formal war like World War II. They don't address non-state actors. It is not a winning technique for the long run against organized defenses. They are joined, or are about to be joined, by Belarusian troops and Chechen special forces. Putin's admission is a remarkable reversal from his comments in August, when he bragged to foreign allies at a military forum that Russia's weapons are "cutting edge" and "decades ahead" of their foreign counterparts. [29], Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2Donetsk Oblast(Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russias proxies in Donbas), Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and made tactical gains within Bakhmut on February 28. : r/CredibleDefense 9 yr. ago Posted by bleepblopbloopy Russias Overestimated Military Might. They are mercenaries. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian troops continued unspecified offensive actions in the western Donetsk Oblast direction. [28], Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian concentration areas in the rear of Luhansk Oblast. MCFATE: Basically, it's anything that doesn't look like World War II is sort of, like, what that means, or sneaky warfare. [2]The apparent uptick in fallacious biochemical and nuclear false flag warnings accompanies a concerted Russian false flag information operation accusing Ukraine of preparing for an invasion of Russian-occupied Transnistria, Moldova. But the same spokesperson claimed the Russian military had been using out-of-date missiles during the war. As a result, Wagner should be considered a proxy organization of the Russian state rather than a private company selling services on the MARTIN: Who are these people? [4]The recent resurgence of several standard Russian information operations in the form of false flag warnings and tired nuclear threats suggests that Russian officials are increasingly trying to mitigate the informational impacts of a continued lack of Russian battlefield successes as well as to slow down the provision of Western tanks and other equipment in advance of expected Ukrainian counter-offensives. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. [72]The decision also imposes sanctions on seven Russian humanitarian and social movement organizations involved in various Russian schemes aiming to deport children. 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